Editor’s note: This article was first published in January 2014; the Justin Bieber remark reflects tabloid coverage of that time, and Daniel Kahneman, described in the present tense, died in March 2024.
Life is luck. That is how bluntly our respected Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman puts it. He has come up with his own equation for success, which explains what it takes to succeed in life…
Kahneman says that the difference between moderate success and great success lies mostly in luck, not skill. Even so, while accepting that chance plays a very important role, we should also be aware that it is the decisions we make in life that can limit the arrival of bad luck and increase good luck.
To take an example from Nassim Nicholas Taleb, an excellent financial mathematician, he argued that 1 million dollars earned as a dentist is not the same as 1 million dollars earned by a film star or a rock singer.
Most readers will be thinking right now that it is much easier to earn 1 million as a singer, but that isn’t true. There is much more chance involved in the money earned by a singer or film star.
If an 18-year-old tells you he’s going to be a rock star, the first thing that comes to mind is that the poor kid is going to go hungry for much of his life, because he is gambling on chance. If you say you’re going to be a dentist, the truth is that, as a general rule, dentists don’t go hungry.
Conclusion: if you want to have more luck, study to be a dentist, not a rock star.
The variable
Millions of people around the world are trying to carve out a place for themselves in Hollywood or in music. There are many singers with prodigious voices and more talent than big music stars, but for some reason they don’t make it, they don’t get heard or they aren’t lucky enough to be backed by someone. These people, more talented than the stars themselves, are victims of bad luck.
If you start studying dentistry, it is your effort from day one that will get you better grades and leave you better prepared. And it is your entrepreneurial character later on that will decide whether you become a dentist working for a clinic, a self-employed dentist or a dentist with 100 clinics of your own around the world.
In this case we are not playing with luck, but with our skill.
The big difference between money earned and money handed to you
Going back to the example of dentists and rock stars, statistically there are hardly any dentists addicted to crack, cocaine or excesses, whereas in the world of stars it is rare to find someone who has kept their head screwed on.
When we talk about making money through effort, early success will make us much more successful over time.
See also: 4 money myths I discovered by studying the rich for 5 years (Thomas C. Corley)
When our success is due to an excess of good luck, early success doesn’t mean more success later, but an earlier and more dreadful decline. It is that early success that has led many great, successful artists to join the 27 Club, a group of artists who happen to die at 27 because of their excesses.
But why do very successful people end up losing their heads?
The short explanation doesn’t require any psychological study: having a lot of luck turns you into a terminal, irresponsible and arrogant jerk who mistakes luck for skill.
So it is easier to explain why people who earn every euro through their own effort keep their heads screwed on for much longer.
People who built their fortunes with their skill and talent, even while fighting bad luck, know the effort it takes to climb each step on the ladder of success. They have built up layers of skills and strengthened their talents. Their good sense and their integrity are what led them to success, and so it is their integrity that will keep them there.
Ironically, everyone would like to have a lot of luck, when the truth is that people who feed only on good luck and don’t develop their talents and skills sooner or later run into bad luck. Because, as Wiseman said, luck is also a skill that can be learned.
Further reading
- The parable of success: the gold prospector
- 16 hard things we must do to achieve success
- 26 lessons to prepare your child for the real world
Featured image: Kmwebber, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
