Editor’s note: This article was first published in March 2013. It is market commentary from that month: Sacyr trading around €1.60–€1.72, targets of €1.90 and €2.80, Gamesa at €2.30, and Juan Abelló selling his 42.7 million shares (9.6% of the capital).
Update, 6 March 2013: We have just learned that Juan Abelló, a reference investor in Sacyr, has sold out of the stock completely, disposing of all his shares (42.7 million of them), 9.6% of Sacyr’s capital. We don’t know how the market will react to this bombshell, reported by the newspaper CincoDías.com, and it could put at risk the technical rebound we were expecting in the stock.
Sacyr is one of the hardest-hit stocks on the IBEX, and it has always been known for its high volatility. Right now, the bears don’t dare and the bulls can’t make up their minds. The volatility has died down and, technically, the stock would be just about ripe if the IBEX plays along.
Something has changed in this stock. In recent days we have seen many stocks fall more than 5% in a single session, and the IBEX itself lost more than 3% at one point. Yet Sacyr, which not long ago would have led the declines, always held above €1.60, and that is saying a lot. At the moment it is fighting not to lose €1.70, sitting just above its moving average. If it breaks through €1.72, trading systems will give a (speculative) buy signal.
Our friends at Estrategias de Inversión give several technical reasons why Sacyr could rise by as much as 70%, up to €2.80. I wouldn’t be quite so optimistic, but we could soon see €1.90, a level that acted as resistance last time. That scenario holds as long as the IBEX doesn’t come crashing down, and it means taking a speculative short-term buy position. After that, we would see what to do with the stock.
Let’s also remember that Sacyr has always followed in the footsteps of its twin, Gamesa (the two fell and rose at the same time and with the same intensity). Gamesa is already trading at €2.30 (who would have thought it), and we shouldn’t rule out Sacyr doing the same.
Featured image: Luis Cerdeira, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
