Editor’s note: This article was first published in October 2011. The news about Spain’s falling birth rate, the remark that the crisis had no end in sight, and the debate on privatizing education and healthcare all reflect that moment.
We recently learned of the sharp fall in Spain’s birth rate, to the point where practically more people are dying than being born. But it’s not just Spain’s problem. According to a study by the Pew Research Center, every recession in history has followed the same demographic pattern: in times of crisis, women put off having children until later, when the economic situation improves.
The study analyzed birth data from the United States, where 48 of the 50 states followed a common pattern: the higher the unemployment, the lower the birth rate. The only states that kept their birth rates steady were two of those least hit by unemployment, North Dakota and Maine, the two states with healthy unemployment figures. The study goes further and includes data from 1929–1930, when the world saw the largest drop in births in history (31%), followed by 1936–1939, with a 26% drop.
According to the experts, both the United States and Europe will go through a similar and perhaps more worrying situation, because the financial crisis and the birth rate are tightly linked, and for now this crisis has no end in sight. If it drags on, by the time the economy is in better shape, governments will be weighed down by a high proportion of pensioners, which could blow a new hole in public finances.
Reading between the lines, these figures also raise doubts about whether there will be enough money to pay pensions. At a time when there is talk of privatization in both education and healthcare, it might be worth asking whether a good private retirement plan is advisable, although, as we’ve discussed on several occasions, for savers and investors a pension plan offers very poor returns.
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We’d go a step further: with these recessions and the falling birth rate, there could only be two possible explanations:
- Couples are having less sex.
- More contraceptives are being used.
We obviously lean toward the second option, so we conclude that one of the most profitable businesses in times of crisis is selling contraceptives 🙂
Featured image: Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)., Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
